Migrationsverket Forecasts Only 65,000 Citizenship Decisions in 2026 — Down 26% from Earlier Plans

The 65,000 forecast — and why it's lower than before

In October 2024, the Migration Agency told the government it expected to conclude around 87,000 citizenship applications each year in 2025 and 2026. By April 2025, the agency revised that figure downward by more than a quarter, to about 65,000 in 2026.

The reason is not a hiring freeze or budget cut — it is the security-strengthened process itself. From 1 April 2025, citizenship cases are subject to:

• In-person identity checks at Migrationsverket (with limited exceptions for biometric-passport holders of certain nationalities);
• Specialist document examination for non-biometric passports and IDs;
• Expanded questions in the application about identity, travel, family, work, and studies;
• Review by the Swedish Security Service (Säkerhetspolisen) for every case.

All of that takes time per case. The same staff close fewer cases per year. See our deep-dive on the identity-check reform for what changed and why.

The maths of the queue

The number that turns a forecast into a personal planning fact is the comparison between decisions out and applications in. Migrationsverket forecasts roughly:

• ~60,000 new applications over 2026;
• ~55,000 to ~65,000 concluded decisions — depending on which figure you take (the agency's working target, around 55,000, or its forecast, around 65,000).

If you take the more optimistic forecast of 65,000 decisions against 60,000 new applications, the backlog only shrinks by about 5,000 cases over the year. If you take the working target of 55,000, the backlog grows by 5,000. Either way, the open stock — over 100,000 cases as of April 2026 — barely moves.

What this means for individual wait times

Long. Migrationsverket's published statistics show that for citizenship decisions issued in early 2026, the average time from application was over 1,000 days — that is, around 2.8 years. Combined with the throughput numbers above, two things follow:

• Most cases currently in the queue will be decided after 6 June 2026. That means they will be assessed under the new citizenship rules: 8-year residence, the income requirement, the orderly-life requirement, and the knowledge requirement. There are no transitional arrangements — applying early does not lock in the old rules. See our decision-date cutoff guide.
• Trying to "beat the deadline" via a request to conclude (begäran om att avgöra ärendet) is not a reliable strategy. Since the agency moved to oldest-first processing in late 2025, requests to conclude have been reported as taking longer than before, not shorter.

Why the agency can't just hire its way out of this

A common reaction is "just add staff and the queue clears." That underestimates two structural facts:

1. The security perspective is mandatory. The in-person identity check, document examination, and Säpo review are explicit policy choices, not productivity bottlenecks. They will not be sped up by adding more case officers.
2. The new rules add complexity per case. From 6 June 2026, Migrationsverket needs to assess income (three income base amounts), the orderly-and-honourable-life requirement, and knowledge of Swedish society. Each is an additional review step.

The reasonable expectation is that average processing times remain elevated through 2026, even if monthly approval counts recover.

What to do with this information

1. Plan for the new rules, not the old ones. If your decision lands after 6 June 2026 — and statistically it will — those are the rules that govern.
2. Make the knowledge requirement a known quantity. The civics test is the one piece you can study for and pre-pass. Sweden's first civics test is on 15 August 2026 (Stockholm only, by Migrationsverket letter). See how the test works.
3. Get your income on the record. The income requirement is "three income base amounts per year" (about SEK 20,000/month before tax in 2026 terms). See our income guide.
4. Respond fast to any Migrationsverket request. Use Mina sidor; don't miss your in-person identity check invitation; keep your details current.
5. Be sceptical of fast-track promises. Nothing in the 2026 system reliably moves a citizenship case forward outside the queue's normal order.

Frequently asked questions

How many citizenship cases will Migrationsverket close in 2026?

The Migration Agency forecasts about 65,000 concluded citizenship cases in 2026. This is roughly 26% lower than the agency's earlier forecast of 87,000, made in October 2024 — the cut reflects new identity and security checks that take more time per case.

What is the official agency target for 2026?

Reporting puts Migrationsverket's working target at around 55,000 concluded cases in 2026, with the 65,000 figure as a forecast. The targets and forecasts can be revised through the year.

How many new applications come in each year?

The agency's forecast is around 60,000 new citizenship applications in 2026. That is broadly in line with the projected number of decisions — so even in a normal year, the open stock barely moves.

So is the queue shrinking or growing?

Either flat or growing. With ~60,000 new applications and ~55,000–65,000 decisions, the backlog is forecast to shift by only a few thousand cases at most in 2026 — and with the new identity and security checks, the direction is more likely "growing" than "shrinking" in the near term.

Why did the throughput estimate drop so much?

Migrationsverket attributes the lower forecast to the security perspective strengthened from April 2025: in-person identity checks, document examination by specialists, additional questions in the application, and security service review for every case. All of that takes time per case, lowering the number of cases the same staff can close per year.

What does this mean for my application?

Most realistically, you should expect a wait measured in years, not months — early-2026 decisions were averaging over 1,000 days from application. Plan to meet the new rules from 6 June 2026, not the old ones.

A note on these numbers

This article summarises Migrationsverket's published forecasts and the agency's own statements about the security-strengthened process, as covered in 2025–2026 reporting. The 65,000 figure is a forecast; the agency's working target and actual outcome can differ. Always check the latest figures with Migrationsverket. This is general information, not legal advice.